Executive Summary: If you make the final cutoff at Comrades 2024 by 1 second you will need to run at a ‘slowest possible pace’ of 7:20/km to finish under 12 hours. If back-of-the-pack runners can run faster than this over the last split, it means that the cutoff is wrong and will result in Comrades runners losing out on a medal. Data analysis from the last Up run in 2019 shows that over 1000 Vic Clapham medallists and hundreds of last 10 minute finishers ran faster than this. Therefore the current cutoff is badly calculated and will rob potentially hundreds of Comrades runners of a medal.
The good news is that we’ll see runners on the field during the last minute before cutoff this year. The bad news is that we’ll still be a few hundred runners short of a full field.
After the cutoff debacle at Comrades 2023, the Comrades 2024 cutoffs were always going to come under scrutiny. When the original Comrades 2024 cutoffs were published, several people pointed out some serious potential flaws. It was encouraging to see that new Race and Operations Manager, Ann Ashworth, listened to the feedback and took them back for review.
After the dictatorial decision-making that plagued the 2023 event, Comrades has potentially overcorrected and gone into ‘death by committee’ mode where decisions need to be approved by a large number of people (14 in the case of cutoff timings).
Well known road running expert, Norrie Williamson, concentrated his efforts to change the race’s early cutoffs. He posted a well thought out argument for adjusting the published Comrades cutoff times which received several hundred likes, over 150 comments and 63 shares (which in turn received hundreds more likes and comments).
Williamson’s argument was that the early cutoffs force those at the back-of-the-pack to ‘race’ to make the early cutoffs. Back runners have to contend with over 13 minutes of ‘wait time’ before crossing the start line, congestion in the early stages of the race and various other race day delays. They then need to ‘make up this time’ by expending much more energy than is necessary over the much tougher first half of Comrades. This in turn results in sub-optimal pacing that negatively impacts these runners later in the day. Essentially, they are forced to buy an expensive item on credit during the first half of the race and they get nailed by the interest payments over the second.
The Facebook post also details the history of the cutoff timings that seem to have been made slowly more and more stringent on the whims and egos of certain individuals. It should be noted that the primary importance is for runners to make the final finish line cutoff of 12 hours – in-race cutoffs are solely there to open the roads again for normal traffic. Ideally cutoffs should not prevent someone who has the chance of finishing under 12 hours from doing so.
Williamson tends to be the ‘Cassandra’ of South African road running but for once his sage advice and reasoning seems to have been heeded. The first cutoff in Pinetown has been completely removed, the second at Winston Park has had an extra 15 minutes added to it and the halfway mark at Drummond has had an extra 10 minutes added. These are excellent and well needed changes. It allows for runners to start slower and expend consistent effort on the arduous Up run where most of the climbing happens over the first half.
However, this does rely on the assumption that runners will follow sensible ‘pacing’. At the 2022 Comrades Down run, all splits except Drummond were increased by 10 minutes. I did some comprehensive analysis on how many runners went through splits in the last 10 minutes and finished– it was just 9 (see the “Did the extra 10 minutes at split cut-off result in many more finishers?” section within this article for full details).
However, analysis of the 2019 cutoffs looks like there might be very different trends on the Up run. I will crunch the numbers after 9 June to see how many finishers benefitted from the extra 15 minutes at Winston Park and extra 10 minutes at Drummond. My pre-race prediction is that this will be fewer than 20 runners*. To be clear, my view is that even one additional medallist warrants the changes, I just don’t expect that many runners will benefit from this change in 2024.
* I am prepared to put my money where my mouth is and have a bet involving beer with Norrie Williamson on how many runners will earn a medal based on the more relaxed early cutoff times.
What is the problem then? The more lenient first half cutoffs are now ‘correct’ and will likely result in a small number of runners benefiting. However, the final cutoff is still incorrect and will result in hundreds of runners missing out on a medal in 2024. This is not an opinion; I’ve got the data to back this up.
The cutoff time of 11h10 is the same as at the last Up run in 2019 but the 2024 distance is about 800m shorter. This alone should warrant allowing an extra seven minutes (which could be generously rounded up to ten).
- The 2019 equation was 7.57km to the finish in 50 minutes = slowest possible pace of 6:36/km*.
- The 2024 equation is 6.81km to the finish in 50 minutes = slowest possible pace of 7:20/km.
* Personally I think this is still too strict and the required run rate should be somewhere between 5:00 and 5:30/km slowest possible pace. Data from previous Comrades shows that a small number of back of the pack runners are able to run around 5:30/km over the final split when under time pressure for a medal.
Based on 2019 data and focussing on 2024’s ‘slowest possible pace’ from the final split of 7:20/km:
- 1176 Vic Clapham medallists ran the final split at 7:20/km or faster.
- 261 (70%) of the 371 Vic Clapham medallists who went through the final split with less than 10 minutes to spare (11h00 to 11h10) ran the final split at 7:20/km or faster (this means the majority of ‘last 10 minute’ runners ran faster than 7:20/km in 2019)
- The final split average pace of a 2019 Vic Clapham medallist was 7:53/km.
- The final split average pace of a 2019 Vic Clapham medallist who made the Polly Shortts cutoff with less than 10 minutes to spare was 7:10/km.
- The final split average pace of a 2019 Vic Clapham medallist who made the Polly Shortts cutoff with less than 5 minutes to spare was 6:49/km.
- This is consistent with data from other Comrades Marathons showing that runners under time pressure are able to run significantly faster than the average pace.
Quite simply, the current cutoff time of 11h10 requiring a slowest possible pace of 7:20/km for someone who summits Polly Shortts with 1 second to spare is far too tight and is going to result in hundreds of Comrades runners being denied the glory of chasing down a last-minute medal.
Another important data point is analysis of where the 2366 runners who started but failed to finish Comrades 2019 fell. This is illustrated in the graph below.
As you can see, less than 100 runners were cutoff before halfway. In fact the number of runners increases by 34 between the start line and Pinetown (this could be issues with the starting timing mats unable to handle the volume of runners but is more likely a form of cheating called “Ritchie McCawing” where runners enter from the side). The Cato Ridge and Polly Shortts cutoffs cause the biggest number of casualties. Let’s analyse the number of runners who went through each cutoff point with less than 10 minutes to spare and earned a medal.
- No one went through Winston Park slower than 4h20 and finished the race (+15 minutes / 4h45 in 2024).
- 58 runners went through Drummond between 6h00 and 6h10 and finished. The slowest was Lance George in 6:07:54 for an 11:58:07 finish (+10 minutes / 6h20 in 2024).
- 12 runners went through Cato Ridge between 8h00 and 8h10 and finished. The slowest was Sibusiso Mthembu in 8:05:14 for an 11:58:54 finish (no change in 2024).
- 140 runners went through Umlaas Road between 9h20 and 9h30 and finished. The slowest was Godfrey Nkomazana in 9:29:22 for an 11:57:18 finish. The large number of runners indicates that this cutoff was too strict in 2019 (+10 minutes / 9h40 in 2024).
- 371 runners went through the top of Polly Shortts (called Mkondeni on 2024 charts) between 11h00 and 11h10 and finished. The slowest was Maurice Pitsoane in 11:09:23 for an 11:59:45 finish (no change in 2024). The large number of runners indicates that this cutoff was too strict in 2019, the distance to the finish is about 800m shorter in 2024 but unfortunately the cutoff time has not been proactively increased to 11h20 and that is the problem.
What is needed to change this problem? Simple, just add ten minutes to the current final cutoff.
Who can make this change? Celi Makhoba chairs the Comrades Race Advisory Committee – there is still plenty of time to add ten minutes to the Mkondeni cutoff.
What is the risk versus the reward? It’s a no brainer. Allowing an extra 10 minutes at the final cutoff has a massive upside and very little downside (see below).
Every Comrades runner has run hundreds of kilometres on the road before the cock will crow on 9 June. Every Comrades runner has spent thousands of rands to get to the start line on 9 June. Every Comrades runner has sacrificed hundreds of hours in preparation for 9 June. Every Comrades runner deserves a fair chance of earning a medal on 9 June.
Imagine spending all this time, money and effort. Imagine conquering Comrade’s big five hills. Imagine running 80 kilometres only to have your shot of a glorious last-minute finish dashed because a committee of bureaucrats does not understand how to properly set cutoffs.
Mr. Makhoba, you can make this change. It’s just 10 minutes at the end of a very long day. The fate of hundreds of Comrades runners is in your hands.
Afterword
When setting the final cutoff you should not consider pace to get to that point (in fact it’s important to state that cutoffs should not be used for pacing). All you need to consider is what is the fastest pace humanly possible for someone to run from that point to the finish. No other data is relevant at this point.
What is a well calculated cutoff? You should see no one making the finish if they make the cutoff in the last two minutes. The graphs below from Wits statistician and Comrades Green Number 40670, Mark Dowdeswell, highlight the difference between a good and bad cutoff.
Our only hope that as a result of your well reasoned statistics here, that the comrades committe will revisit their cut off proposals and make the necessary changes, to allow for a cut off that makes it possible for more participants to earn their much Comrades Medal.
On another angle to this, is that forcing runners to try to run faster to get to this cut off, may cause additional exhaustion and stress. If so, it would create additional pressure on the medical staff at the finish. Just a thought that’s all.
Firstly, The Running Mann – you are 100% correct that there is little if ANYTHING (other than Race Advisory Committee MISPLACED pride at stake by adding 10 minutes to the Polly Shortts cut off.
There is NO Rush for the very few residents between Ashburton and top of Polly Shortts, and even then from the Industrial estate and there are alternative routes back down out of the area.
The ONLY entrapped area is the Spar and shop on Polly shortts (which has a pub / cafe facilities to wait the extra 10 minutes!)
The other area can also get out via Market or the old Comrades route to Hadfield / New england road.
So the extra time is a relative NON issue.
Basically i would support the adding of 10 minutes because its the safer option.
ALL THAT AGREED – the ‘flaw’ in the use of the past statistics is that (and we are looking theoretically now) all the previous stats are based on the 4:40-4:50 marathon runners having been FORCED to run WAY BEYOND their abilities on the first 18km and as such are destined to blow up by the late cut offs – hence the graph that is presented above.
if you run the first quarter / fifth of a race too hard (for your ability) you will ALWAYS die in the last third.
So the key to there being better results as the new modified cut offs stand is that runners in the 4:40 to 4:50 group MUST now slow down and use 3 hours to 3 hours 5 minutes to get to the place where the cut off in pinetown has been removed —
AND 6 hours 15 minutes at half way..
Instead of being dead on their feet they will then have more energy when they arrive Umlaas road and Polly shorts so more will make it through (even half way) and therefore in a better condition to handle the last run in to the finish from top of polly. They will also be able to run both little and big polly and as such more will get there before the cut off..
thats the theory and as Running Mann says there is a need for a massive Education drive to convince these slow G, H, I batch runners to take it easier and slower even for the very first 5km to Tollgate……
The more that do that – the more who will arrive on time at Polly shorts (I hope to win our beers based on education of runners prior to the race on how to pace – Stuart is hoping to win the bet and beers based on runners INABILITY to learn and still go off too fast – either way we will both have some beers together)
Lastly the real impact of all of these changes and modification is actually more important as the history of the Cut off has been exposed as has the totally unnecessary stubbornness and illogical thinking and power mongering and ignorance of certain board and Race Advisory Committee members……
They really do need to stand down or face the embarrassment of being removed… There is truly no place in sport for their attitude…
technical officials, organisers, and administrator are supposed to be there to ASSIST ALL RUNNERS to be able to perform to their best ability….. Its clearly evident that until the new Race Manager came into the organisation this focus did not exist. Thankfully some Board members have been enlightened and so those who are holding the runners back are being exposed.
The Running Mann can we fix Running for better. Comrades Manager she was running also sometimes and was complaining about Marathon issues too.
Today the same person she forget about her complaining because she has position in Comrades associations…
We should market this more and put the pressure on to change the cut off. I agree 10 min more on the final cut off only has an upside. It is as if the Committee wants to be punitive rather than supportive. Is there an email we send to Mr Makhoba
Being a first time runner of comrades marathon!; I with appreciate the last cut off to be added by 10min! Cause if that does not happen; most of us may not make it to reach that cutt off by that time!!! 2023 cutt off at Sherwood made a lot of runners out of the race and had to put on the bus and taken to the stadium!! I feel its unfair to put a cutt off and a place in the race knowing very well that 90% of the runners will be cut off at the top of Polly SHOTTS!!! It will be very heart breaking and to take it in coming all the way from Durban!!! I see alot of complaints after comrades marathon 2024!!! Good luck to all see URL on race day!! God bless!!!
What happened to the good old days when Comrades was done to an 11 hour finish with a 4H30 qualifier. Watching Comrades on the TV and noticing how many persons struggle through the race due to cheating and esp having buddies qualifing for them has simply watered down this awesome race. On two occasions I stood at Drummond and was dumbfounded at the high failure rate of socalled seasoned runners not making that cutoff.
Would be great if the statisticians can show us the finishes percentage for the qualifiers from 4H30 to 4H50
The race would not be commercially viable were is not for extending the cutoff to 12 hours (which was the original cutoff when Vic Clapham started the race). The overall failure rate is usually about 10% of starters (which only changes radically if there is really bad weather). There is some analysis here on bailer rates by age, batch, etc.: https://runningmann.co.za/2023/05/25/comrades-2022-full-field-race-stats/ and yes the failure rate is much higher in G and H batches with the slowest qualification times.
So when can we make you or Norrie the head of the CMA? Or maybe a better question is what would it take for you to become the head?
Definitely not a position I want (don’t think Norrie want that either) but both of us are happy to serve, support and assist wherever we can. One problem is that they don’t want (or think they need) outside help and insights. The important thing will be to vote in competent board members at the next AGM.
‘Richie McCawing!!’ I’ll have you know he is an accomplished Adventure Racer now (probably uses a GPS)!
I really don’t follow the desire to strictly cut off people so close to the finish. Even if they miss the 12hours, let them finish the route unofficially in under 13. Saves you on busses too.
Also, in the sorry not sorry statement made last year, CMA indicated runners affected by the cut off discrepancies would be contacted. Did this happen?
If Richie McCaw ever runs Comrades we will need to track his progress over the start line very carefully! 🙂
Yes, the impacted runners were contacted and given a 50% discount on their 2024 entry fee.
Malcolm go back a bit further, in fact to the beginning, no qualifier and 12hr cutoff. that was with 20 odd runners not 22000 runners.
Hi I am 48 years old. This is my first comrades. I am also recovering from an injury. The increase in cutoff time at Polly shorts will help immensely. I ran the 2 oceans this year and did last 4 km in under 6min/km to make the qualifying time for the comrades by 10 minutes.
Saw the change announced by the CMA. Thank you, Running Mann and Norrie!
https://comrades.com/blog/posts/final-comrades-route-cut-off-revised
yes, credit where it is due – CMA are clearly listening.
Heartbreaking to see a 19 time finisher cut-off at Umlaas, he had the cut-off wrong by 5 minutes.