After the 2023 Comrades cutoffs cost several hundred runners their medal, some changes were expected in 2024. What was the net positive gain? 487 athletes converted despair to glory. These 487 would have been cutoff in 2024 had the times not been made more lenient. However, what is surprising, is that there is still resistance from certain members of the Board to make sensible adjustments to cutoff times.
What follows are details and in depth analysis of the who, how and what of cutoffs at Comrades 2024…
The initial 2024 announcement was that the following changes had been made to the cutoff times applied at the last Up run in 2019:
- 5 minutes added at Pinetown
- 10 minutes added at Umlaas Road
Following some objections, notably from Norrie Williamson, who provided plenty of background on the history of cutoffs and unnecessary tinkering with the cutoff times by unqualified administrators (most notably was that the Cowies Hill cutoff was moved 2km further along the road to Pinetown in 2017 but the cutoff time remained unchanged defying logic). This resulted in the following additional changes:
- Pinetown cutoff scrapped
- 15 minutes added at Winston Park
- 10 minutes added at Drummond
I was rather disappointed that the final cutoff at Mkondeni (located at the top of Polly Shortts) remained unchanged. The 2024 distance was approximately 760m shorter than in 2019 which makes a massive difference to the average pace required (6:36/km in 2019 versus 7:20/km in 2024). The evening after the announcement of the initial cutoff, I provided detailed statistical analysis to Comrades showing that 261 participants who went through Mkondeni with less than 10 minutes to spare in 2019 were able to run faster than the 2024 required run rate of 7:20/km and earn a medal.
My analysis was rebuffed with the comment that my calculations were incorrect and that I didn’t understand the data or what I was talking about. However, it was clear to me that the Mkondeni cutoff would result in many runners losing out on a medal. I engaged with Comrades Chair Mqondisi Ngcobo and sent the attached letter to the Board in a last ditch attempt to sanitise the final cutoff. Amongst other motivations, I threatened them with actuaries and offered to go into a spread bet for a Comrades charity that at least 100 runners would benefit from an additional 10 minutes. Long story short, the Mkondeni cutoff time was adjusted by 10 minutes.
Cutting to the chase (or chasing to the cutoffs), the table below shows exactly what happened. Hardly anyone (8 at Pinetown, 0 at Winston Park and 5 at Drummond) benefitted directly from the early cutoff adjustments. However, a massive 473 would have been shot down at Umlaas Road but instead went on to earn a medal.
Having escaped the cutoff clutches of Umlaas Road, it would have been terrible to complete 92% of the Comrades Marathon only to be culled at Mkondeni. The last minute adjustment at the top of Polly Shortts meant that 117 runners who would have been forced to complete the last 6.8km in a bailer bus, instead got to do so on foot and had a medal to show off for their efforts. A further 350 participants crossed the finish line after the Last Post played, for the dignity and solace of going the distance but getting a technical knockout.
I’ve written more than I would have thought possible about cutoffs but, as an executive summary, a good in-race cutoff means that no one going through a cutoff in the last two minutes should be able to finish. Looking at this year’s data, it is clear that the Cato Ridge (which was not adjusted) and Umlaas Road cutoffs are still too tight.
What this meant for the finish rate
A finish rate above 90% (calculated as the number of runners crossing the start mat divided by the number of legitimate finishers) is very rare. In fact, it’s happened just once (90.8% in 2006) for an Up run with a 12 hour finish. Therefore, the 2024 success rate of 91.6% is the best ever for a 12 hour Up run and the more sensible in-race cutoffs are a major contributor to that*.
* The shorter race distance (approximately 1km) will also have an impact on finisher percentage.
Whist the direct beneficiaries of the more lenient cutoff times over the first half are very low, the more relaxed early cutoff times almost definitely would have resulted in less pressure and better pacing at the back of the field which would also result in more finishers. An indication that most of the field starts out too fast is that 54.2% of this year’s finishers ran their fastest split of the day from 5.5km to Pinetown. However, a positive trend is that over a third of the field ran the final split from Mkondeni to Scottsville as their fastest split of the day.
I was told emphatically and confidently by the ‘experts’ that almost everyone slows down towards the end of the race, that it is an exception when someone runs the final split faster than their average pace and that the additional 10 minutes at Mkondeni would only benefit “Bill Rowan medallists having a bad day”. The data says otherwise:
- 33.8% of the field runs the final split the fastest.
- In H batch, 52.5% of the finishers run the final split from Mkondeni as their fastest (and there are many cases of people running over a minute per kilometre faster than their second fastest split).
- 87 of the 117 runners who benefitted from the extra 10 minutes at Mkondeni came from G and H batch.
Resistance behind the scenes
The cutoff times are set by the Race Advisory Committee (RAC) which has been headed by Board member Celinkosi (known interchangeably as Celi or Cele) Makhoba for over a decade. Former Race Manager, Ann Ashworth, motivated for the much needed cutoff time adjustments. A number of sources confirmed that the only resistance to changing the cutoff times came from Makhoba.
The same sources also highlighted that Makhoba was not prepared for meetings and seemed not to understand the maths or logic behind changing the cutoff times. Explained one, “He [Makhoba] had no understanding of the data, stats and pacing info being provided. He couldn’t even work out the difference between one set of cutoffs and the proposed new ones.” Another was more succinct, “He [Makhoba] didn’t seem to be able to follow the logic.”
One source believes that Makhoba is functionally illiterate. When I set about verifying whether other sources believed this to be the case, the following telling response was received, “That explains a lot. He never responds to emails or WhatsApps, and often completely misunderstands arrangements and arguments (too often). He appears to never read minutes and arrives at meetings unprepared. And despite being a so-called highly qualified technical official, his interpretations of the rules are often completely off the wall.” Another said, “He [Makhoba] came to meetings and said he never received minutes that had been sent to all of us timeously. This became a problem in meetings. We often had to repeat things.”
Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s famous sleuth, Sherlock Holmes, was fond of saying, “Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.” And if you’ve been finding it impossible to understand how a race like Comrades can get something so basic as in-race cutoffs continually wrong, that the primary decision maker is functionally illiterate seems to be the most probable explanation.
A third source referred back to 2012 when men’s race winner Ludwick Mamabolo’s A and B samples tested positive for the banned substance methylhexaneamine. Mamabolo was eventually cleared by an independent panel who found that, “there had been too many irregularities in the testing to uphold a ban.” Who was in charge of doping controls that day? Celi Makhoba. One of the most glaring irregularities was that the standard doping control form had not been completed. Who should have completed this form? That’s right, Celi Makhoba – but it’s difficult to complete a form when you cannot read and write.
The diabolical mess that masqueraded as doping control at Comrades 2012 is detailed in a 58-page ruling that can be read here: https://www.drugfreesport.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/SAIDS-vs-Ludwick-Mamabolo.pdf (examples of various procedural errors are mentioned in paragraphs 38.9, 44, 67.6, 67.7, 67.8, 108.1 and 108.2.9).
During the Mamabolo doping hearings, it emerged that Makhoba had been suspended by KZN Athletics (KZNA) since February 2012 for alleged fraud and making ghost payments to friends and family at events where he was a technical official. In April 2012, The Mercury and IOL online reported that he was still actively officiating in violation of the suspension (https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/kwazulu-natal/kzn-athletics-official-suspended-1270340). Undeterred, the man responsible for rigorously applying the letter of the law to Comrades athletes completely ignored all rules, sanctions and legal irritations and was there in his blazer on the Comrades finish line.
Unfortunately SAIDS don’t read the newspapers because they were also caught unawares that their appointed Doping Control Official (DCO) was suspended. Khalid Galant, then (and still) the head of the SA Institute for Drug-free Sport (SAIDS) was quoted in a Norrie Williamson article in The Witness saying that he was not aware of this suspension and that an allegation of this nature would impact on the integrity of the testing process.
I sent a set of questions to Khalid and Fahmy Galant from SAIDS about the 2012 Mamabolo doping saga, Makhoba’s culpability and whether Makhoba is still employed by SAIDS as a doping official. SAIDS flat out refused to answer any of my questions. Khalid Galant replied with a terse, “Your article and information has no relevance to the business of SAIDS. Please refer your enquiries to the CMA.”
I can’t say I agree with SAIDS’ interpretation on their relevance – and the possible reasons for an evasive response of this nature genuinely intrigues me. I would have expected that the person primarily accountable for a plethora of procedural irregularities (resulting in what is probably the highest profile case of a positive drug result being overturned) would have been sanctioned and SAIDS would be keen to ensure the integrity of future doping controls.
Sadly that does not appear to be the case. Although SAIDS refused to confirm whether Makhoba was still in the employ of SAIDS, I have confirmed via other sources that not only is he still in good standing with SAIDS, Makhoba has in fact been promoted to the top position in the province as Provincial Convenor for SAIDS in KZN.
I was alerted that in Ludwick Mamabolo’s autobiography, Mamabolo alleges that Makhoba tried to solicit a bribe to make the doping charges disappear. On page 85, Mamabolo recounts how he received a call from “Cele” to inform him of the positive drug testing result and that “Cele” made him an offer to make the problem disappear for a price and a three-month suspension from participating in races (the latter is a well-known but illegal tactic referred to as a ‘soft ban’ in distance running circles where an athlete announces a serious / mysterious illness and then refrains from participating in formal events despite continuing to train as usual).
READ MORE: comrades over Comrades (Doping facts and rumours from Comrades 2022)
A few pages later Mamabolo formally outs Makhoba as the alleged solicitor of the bribe, “It was also found out that Cele Makhoba, the caller, who solicited the bribe, who was in fact the doping control officer, had been suspended days before the 2012 Comrades race.”
I am sure that the public would like to know whether there was any investigation made into Mamabolo’s claim that Celi Makhoba had asked for the Comrades winner’s cheque in return for making the drug charges disappear. I specifically posed this question to the Galants at SAIDS in a follow-up email but it’s been radio silence in return. I guess the hunters don’t like becoming the hunted.
Makhoba was eventually cleared of the fraud charges but there is no record available of the internal disciplinary process that was followed or whether internal politics (which is rife in provincial athletics structures) was involved either in the initial charges or Makhoba’s exoneration. The Witness article at the time does note that there was a change in leadership within KZNA between Makhoba being charged and exonerated (https://witness.co.za/archive/2012/08/28/celi-makhoba-cleared-after-kzn-athletics-probe-20150430/).
In trying to make sense of this hot mess, I turned to an experienced technical official who has worked closely with Makhoba for many years. The official, who has asked to remain anonymous, agreed that “there have been many complaints over the years about Celi Makhoba’s control over technical aspects of the race.” He went on to say, “facts and logic won’t make any difference if this contradicts his [Makhoba’s] way of thinking.”
Whilst others have called Makhoba’s interpretation of the rules “bizarre”, this technical official was able to provide a concrete example of ‘Makhoba logic’. To be eligible for an age category prize, an athlete needs to wear a badge denoting their age group on the front and back of their vest. When Comrades started printing the age categories on the race number (a much better, simpler and more correct standardised solution) Makhoba still insisted that badges needed to be worn or prize money would be forfeited. “This simple logic was unacceptable because it was not proposed or ‘owned by him [Makhoba]’. It defied logic.” This idiotic application of the rules resulted in several controversies over the years like Zola Budd-Pieterse and Alan Robb being denied age category prizes. ‘Makhoba logic’ was eventually overruled when other technical officials mobilised Board members to change the ruling.
A further gripe from this technical official is that Makhoba uses his athletics club, Durban City Multisport Athletic Club (who this year had just one runner at Comrades), as a front to bully technical decisions through as well as a means of using taxpayer and ratepayer funds to ‘sponsor’ their races. I ran one of these, the Durban City Marathon, in 2022 which was very badly organised and was without water the whole race. Makhoba and his organising team could not even be bothered to try and make a plan for the runners on the second lap of the marathon many hours after the problem was known.
READ MORE: Durban City Marathon (Water, water everywhere but not a drop to drink)
At the time KZNA Chairperson and fellow Comrades Board member, Steve Mkasi (who is an active runner himself), said that he “cannot understand how he [Makhoba] can start a race with no water.” On the apology that was circulated on social media from the water supplier (Splash Distributors) after the race, Mkasi said, “It seems to me it’s a staged response. I can’t fathom as to how you make such a mistake.”
Makhoba specialises in ‘municipality sponsored’ marathons, He was the race director of the JG Zuma marathon until the race ran out of money (some would say unsurprisingly) in 2018 after two editions. These days, on top of organising the Durban City Marathon, Makhoba is the race director for the Harry Gwala Marathon (with a marathon prize purse of around R300,000 but just 125 finishers in 2024) and the Prince Mangosuthu 52k Ultra Marathon* (with an event purse of around R800,000 and just 390 finishers in the ultra).
* I ran the inaugural Prince Mangosuthu Ultra in 2019 and am pleased to report that it was well organised.
What is very sad, is how one person can have such a negative and seemingly unchecked influence on the Comrades Marathon. Were it not for the diminutive but feisty former Race Manager, Ann Ashworth, 487 Comrades runners’ dreams would have been shattered on the road to Scottsville. How many thousands have a lost a medal due to incompetent officials devoid of logic and commonsense? I believe we’ve got to the root cause of the continual cutoff chaos. With one question answered, another arises. After Ann Ashworth’s firing, who will protect the interests of runners at Comrades 2025?
Celi Makhoba was contacted but declined to provide responses to questions for this article.
Header photo credit: Comrades Marathon Association
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Well done Stuart !! You have nailed him Now he needs to be turfed out of the CMA.He does not have the runners interests at heart,and is there for his own benefit ,👎👎😠😠
He should be banned from participation in sport at any and every level. Incompetence is one thing, but corruption is inexcusable.
Thank you Stuart your stats proofed that myself and many Last Action Heroes were cheated out of a finish due to the cut -offs
Well done. You seem to have nailed this individual chapter and verse. I remains to be seen if he will walk the plank or wait to be pushed, or, heaven forbid, recieve a further promotion.