Camille Herron Archives - The Running Mann

30th May 202330th May 2023

Comrades 2018 (Full statistical analysis)

How The 2018 Men’s Comrades Down Run Was Won

In the men’s race, it’s all fun and games until well after the halfway mark at split five, the Winston Park – Pinetown split. This is where all eventual top five finishers run their fastest segment and sorts out the real contenders for the Comrades crown from the pretenders.

From Pinetown there are just five real challengers for the win (with Steven Way behind as a possible sixth). Bongmusa Mthembu turns on the gas and no one else comes close to match him over the last 21km – where he runs the fastest final two splits in the field.

There was a lot of talk about Steven Way’s strong finish but interesting to note that Bongmusa Mthembu was faster than him in all seven splits (and still significantly so over last two splits).

18th May 202325th May 2023

Comrades 2022 Elite Female Stats

This is part of a trilogy of articles providing an in-depth statistical analysis of Comrades 2022. Also see the statistical analysis articles on Elite Men and Overall / Full Field (coming soon).

The Gold Standard

The graph below shows the average pace between each timing mat for the top ten. Adele Broodryk makes an early move between Lynnfield Park and Cato Ridge (one of only two splits where a female runner dips below 4min/km) but she can’t hold the pace through halfway.

The big (and definitive) move usually happens between Winston Park and Pinetown in the down run this year is no different. Morozova smashes the fastest pace of the race (3:52) and, although she slows on the Sherwood split (which includes Cowies Hill), she extends her lead with no one else coming close to matching her.

Morozova’s pace over the two splits from Winston Park to Sherwood was the difference at Comrades 2022 (photo courtesy of Marathonfoto.com)

11th May 202311th May 2023

Run Like a Girl (A Guide to Optimal Pacing at the Comrades Marathon)

I like to run and I like to run the numbers. There is nothing quite like getting a really big dataset in one’s hands and playing around with the numbers. Once a year I allow myself this self-indulgence. Night after night, glass of red wine after glass of red wine, after everyone else in the household has gone to bed, I sit alone and pound away at my keyboard.

The Comrades data is quite predictable, every year the same patterns emerge. Most people start too fast and finish much slower, there is the Christmas tree finisher pattern where more people finish in the last 15 minutes of each medal cut-off than in any of the previous 15 minute segments.

This Christmas tree, pagoda pattern where more runners finish in the last 15 minutes of each medal cut-off occurs predictably every year.

Every year I come up with a few new ideas to add to the list of graphs and analysis I undertake – and if the findings are interesting enough I work this into conversations, corporate training materials and conference talks whenever I get the opportunity. I’ve run a lot of marathons and I’ve run a lot of data. However, this article covers the most surprising statistic I’ve found.

1st March 20232nd March 2023

Life Lessons from the Road – Risky Business

[This is the second part of an article using ultra marathon running to explain sizing. You can read the first part here: The Best Ultra Marathon Runner in the World Helps Explain Why Size Matters]

In the first installment, we established that smaller is better when it comes to estimation and sizing. We used Camille Herron (holder of nine ultra marathons distance world records) to illustrate that as volume increases velocity, confidence and predictability decrease. Below is a table with her personal bests (several of which are world records).

Risk enters the race

One aspect that most people forget about when sizing is risk – and an important factor here is that as size increases, risk increases exponentially. Anyone, regardless of their current state of fitness, can start a one kilometre race highly confident that they will make it to the finish line within a reasonably small variance of their time estimation.

27th February 20231st March 2023

The Best Ultra Marathon Runner in the World Helps Explain Why Size Matters

“Does size matter?” is probably the male equivalent to, “Does my bum look big in these pants?” And if you have to ask either question, it’s highly likely that you don’t really want an honest answer.

Size always matters – no surprise there but, in this article anyway, it’s probably not quite in the way that you think. As for potentially the more controversial part of the headline, who is the “best ultra marathon runner in the world”, I am going to make a case for Camille Herron.

26th June 201926th May 2023

Comrades 2019: Ladies Elite Field (All the Stats)

A stat by stat account of the Comrades 2019 Women’s Race.

The Gold Standard

Gerda Steyn was in a class of her own smashing the record and becoming the first lady to break six hours on the Up Run (only three ladies have achieved this on the Down Run). After a fast start by Ann Ashworth (2018 Down Run winner) and Camille Herron (defending Up Run champion), Steyn takes the lead early on and no one comes close to keeping up with her.

Fields Hill fractures the field directly after Pinetown. Alexandra Morozova makes her move before Drummond but can’t keep pace with Steyn and settles for second. After starting slowly, Caitriona Jennings blasts her way to halfway but struggles over the latter states of the race (doing well to hang onto third position). The most interesting pacing is by the local Kwazulu Natal debutant Jenna Challenor, who produces a great even run for a sixth place finish. Continue reading “Comrades 2019: Ladies Elite Field (All the Stats)”

17th June 20197th July 2019

Drug Running at Comrades (and discrediting American ignorance)

The Comrades Marathon is a lot like a nasty big brother that sadistically bullies, torments and tortures his weaker siblings. As one of those weaker siblings, I’ve received more than my fair share of merciless moers, violent lammies and vicious donkey klaps at the annual family reunion between Durban and Pietermaritzburg. I feel this entitles me to have an opinion and say what I like about Comrades – and occasionally I repay my serial brutalisation with a playful retort or gentle jab of my own (before running away, slowly). That is the God-given right of a ‘family’ member*.

* For example, one of the article ideas on my backlog is ’10 Things I Hate about Comrades’ but the list of things has grown so long it may in fact form the content of my first full-length book.

However, when someone outside the ‘family’ callously condescends your brutal big brother, all past grievances are forgotten, all past sins are forgiven, and all the scars and bruises from past battles become prized signs of affection. When someone outside the circle of trust insults a member of one’s household, the correct response is to immediately – and without hesitation – take up arms (or in the case of Comrades, legs) to defend the family honour. That is exactly what happened recently when the insolent, ill-informed and ignorant American ultra runner Jim Walmsley condescended Comrades with a reckless remark. Continue reading “Drug Running at Comrades (and discrediting American ignorance)”