Earlier today, the Comrades Marathon Association (CMA) announced that the qualification time for the 2025 event would revert to 5h00 for a standard marathon. The qualification time was changed from 5h00 to 4h50 for the 2019 event. This article provides statistical analysis on the Comrades finish rates between various qualification times and a brief history of Comrades qualification criteria.
The requirement to run a qualifying marathon was introduced in 1975 (the same year that women and non-white athletes were officially allowed to take part). At that stage Comrades could only accommodate 1,500 entrants, was heavily oversubscribed and the 4h30 qualification was a way to ensure that those entering Comrades had the best chance of being able to finish. There was not (and never has been) a medical reason requiring the running of a qualification marathon.
Did it work? I would say, “Yes”. The 1975 Comrades had a finish rate of 91.5% which was the highest ever up to that point. However, the impact might not have been as dramatic as some would expect – the preceding five Comrades had finish rates of 84.3%, 87.7%, 82.7%, 89.7% and 86.1% respectively*.
Continue reading “The impact of 4h50 vs 5h00 Comrades qualification (and a short history of Comrades qualification criteria)”