Humorous Anecdotes, Observations & Accounts of Marathon Running & Agile Adventures.
NOTE: I will be adding additional statistics to this article on a daily basis up to the Sunday 8 June.
The average age of the class of 2025 is 44.5 – exactly the same as in 2024. Therefore, this is the joint oldest group of starters at any Comrades Marathon where age records exist. The average age of the Comrades runner has steadily increased since 1990 from 35 to over 44 post-Covid. This is going to be a problem for the future of the race if the trend continues.
This is part of a tetralogy of articles providing an in-depth statistical analysis of Comrades 2024. The articles on Elite Men, Elite Women and Start Line Stats are already available.
The graph below is a hurricane funnel answering the often-asked question, “What happens to all the entries?”, plotting the fate of the 24,094 Comrades 2024 entries. There was a 21.6% attrition rate to get to the start line which is very similar to the most recent Up runs in 2017 (20.8%) and 2019 (22.4%). However, almost 94% of starters crossed the finish line (although 350 of these did so over 12 hours).
The three percentages are based on total entries, starters and finishers respectively (e.g. 3.6% of entries finish under 7h30, 4.5% of starters and 4.9% of medallists). There is more detailed analysis on the medal breakdowns as well as overall finish success rates comparisons later in this article.
This article provides detailed statistics and analysis of South Africa’s 2024 marathon and ultra road running season.
There were a total of 129 events, comprising 106 standard marathons, 22 ultras and 1 combo (Benoni Northerns which offered a marathon and a 48k). This is 10 more than the pre-Covid number and the highest since I’ve been tracking marathons. On a personal note, I still have 29 (plus whatever new marathons arise in 2025 to run).
There were 16 new races (marathon unless otherwise noted): Air Force Base Makhado, Mapungubwe, Johannesburg City, Festival of Running, Gazamed, Lemo Mall, Nedbank Coastal Marathon, Musina, Mpumalanga, Masingita Mall, Makhuduthamaga Mayor’s, Fetakgomo Tubatse, Midvaal MADMAC, Waterberg, Hope Challenge and NRB Harriers Challenge.
Continue reading “2024 Marathon & Ultra Statistics”
This article provides statistics and analysis of South Africa’s 2023 marathon and ultra road running season. Comparisons are made to 2019 (pre-Covid) and 2022 (first full post-Covid season).
There were a total of 114 events, comprising 93 standard marathons and 23 ultras and. This is just below the 2019 number of 119 events but a big increase from the 2022 number of 99 events.
In the men’s race, it’s all fun and games until well after the halfway mark at split five, the Winston Park – Pinetown split. This is where all eventual top five finishers run their fastest segment and sorts out the real contenders for the Comrades crown from the pretenders.
From Pinetown there are just five real challengers for the win (with Steven Way behind as a possible sixth). Bongmusa Mthembu turns on the gas and no one else comes close to match him over the last 21km – where he runs the fastest final two splits in the field.
There was a lot of talk about Steven Way’s strong finish but interesting to note that Bongmusa Mthembu was faster than him in all seven splits (and still significantly so over last two splits).
This is part of a trilogy of articles providing an in-depth statistical analysis of Comrades 2022. The articles on Elite Men and Elite Women are also available.
The graph below is a hurricane funnel answering the often-asked question, “What happens to all the entries?”
16479 enter, 1688 don’t bother to submit a qualifier, 661 don’t make it to registration, 916 collect their race pack but don’t start and 1503 fall on the road to Durban leaving us with 11711 Comrades 2022 finishers.
I like to run and I like to run the numbers. There is nothing quite like getting a really big dataset in one’s hands and playing around with the numbers. Once a year I allow myself this self-indulgence. Night after night, glass of red wine after glass of red wine, after everyone else in the household has gone to bed, I sit alone and pound away at my keyboard.
The Comrades data is quite predictable, every year the same patterns emerge. Most people start too fast and finish much slower, there is the Christmas tree finisher pattern where more people finish in the last 15 minutes of each medal cut-off than in any of the previous 15 minute segments.
Every year I come up with a few new ideas to add to the list of graphs and analysis I undertake – and if the findings are interesting enough I work this into conversations, corporate training materials and conference talks whenever I get the opportunity. I’ve run a lot of marathons and I’ve run a lot of data. However, this article covers the most surprising statistic I’ve found.
Continue reading “Run Like a Girl (A Guide to Optimal Pacing at the Comrades Marathon)”