Shaun Meiklejohn Archives - The Running Mann

1st February 20251st February 2025

Comrades 2024 Full Field Stats

This is part of a tetralogy of articles providing an in-depth statistical analysis of Comrades 2024. The articles on Elite Men, Elite Women and Start Line Stats are already available.

From the Cradle to the Grave

The graph below is a hurricane funnel answering the often-asked question, “What happens to all the entries?”, plotting the fate of the 24,094 Comrades 2024 entries. There was a 21.6% attrition rate to get to the start line which is very similar to the most recent Up runs in 2017 (20.8%) and 2019 (22.4%). However, almost 94% of starters crossed the finish line (although 350 of these did so over 12 hours).

The three percentages are based on total entries, starters and finishers respectively (e.g. 3.6% of entries finish under 7h30, 4.5% of starters and 4.9% of medallists). There is more detailed analysis on the medal breakdowns as well as overall finish success rates comparisons later in this article.

Note: The finisher numbers are for all people earning that medal or better. For example, the ‘Vic Clapham’ 17305 are all finishers (i.e. 12 hours or better) and the ‘Bronze’ 11398 is everyone finishing 11 hours or better (i.e. it includes all Bronze, RM, BR, etc. medals).

25th May 202323rd June 2023

Comrades 2022 Overall / Full Field Race Stats

This is part of a trilogy of articles providing an in-depth statistical analysis of Comrades 2022. The articles on Elite Men and Elite Women are also available.

Getting to the Start

The graph below is a hurricane funnel answering the often-asked question, “What happens to all the entries?”

16479 enter, 1688 don’t bother to submit a qualifier, 661 don’t make it to registration, 916 collect their race pack but don’t start and 1503 fall on the road to Durban leaving us with 11711 Comrades 2022 finishers.

Note: The finisher numbers are for all people earning that medal or better. For example, the ‘Vic Clapham’ 11711 are all finishers (i.e. 12 hours or better) and the ‘Bronze’ 7632 is everyone finishing 11 hours or better (i.e. it includes all Bronze, RM, BR, etc. medals).

1st March 20232nd March 2023

Life Lessons from the Road – Risky Business

[This is the second part of an article using ultra marathon running to explain sizing. You can read the first part here: The Best Ultra Marathon Runner in the World Helps Explain Why Size Matters]

In the first installment, we established that smaller is better when it comes to estimation and sizing. We used Camille Herron (holder of nine ultra marathons distance world records) to illustrate that as volume increases velocity, confidence and predictability decrease. Below is a table with her personal bests (several of which are world records).

Risk enters the race

One aspect that most people forget about when sizing is risk – and an important factor here is that as size increases, risk increases exponentially. Anyone, regardless of their current state of fitness, can start a one kilometre race highly confident that they will make it to the finish line within a reasonably small variance of their time estimation.

2nd July 20193rd July 2019

Comrades 2019: Mens Elite Field (All the Stats)

The 94th Comrades Marathon and 48th Up Run was held on 9 June 2019. This is a stat by stat account of the Men’s Elite section of the race – with a few anecdotal interludes thrown in to break the statistical monotony.

The Gold Standard

The race starts at a fast pace but everyone (other than a few naïve television commentators) knows that the first half of the Up Run is for the television cameras, the second half is where the medals are earned. Continue reading “Comrades 2019: Mens Elite Field (All the Stats)”