Two Oceans Marathon Ballot 2 (No need for a recount)

Here’s all the stats and facts about the second ballot draw for the 2026 Two Oceans Marathon.

The total number of available entries in ballot 2 were:

• Ultra 2,900 with 8,096 applicants in the selection pool
• Half 2,350 with 18,006 applicants in the selection pool

This was made up from a small allocation of entries held back from ballot 1 (primarily as a risk mitigation approach to ensure permit levels were not breached as in 2025) and 1,617 ultra and 1,553 successful ballot 1 entries that were not paid by the deadline of 31 October. A very small number of applicants who were found guilty of cheating at the 2025 event were also removed from the pool.

A special dispensation was made to allow Blue Number Club (BNC) members who missed the original entry deadline to enter ballot 2. After being neglected in recent years, there has been a deliberate focus to give the BNC “a lot of love” at the 2026 event. This resulted in 228 ultra and 180 half entries in ballot 2 being allocated to those with 10 or more finishes in that event.

An IT system glitch allowed everyone, not just BNC members, to enter after the original entry deadline and ballot 1 draw. Although the “reopening” was not advertised, this resulted in an additional 2,662 ultra and 4,623 half entries. All of these late submissions were excluded from the ballot 2 draw (i.e. only those who were unsuccessful in ballot 1 went through to ballot 2).

I covered the ballot 1 criteria in detail within this article: A Deep Dive into the Two Oceans Ballot Entry Process

If you are still questioning the need for a ballot system, please see the “Why does Two Oceans need a ballot process?” heading in the article above. In South Africa with a high proportion of runners from impoverished backgrounds and other challenges, the ‘fastest finger’ method shows the middle finger to those without high-speed internet connections as well as shift workers.

The ballot 2 criteria was a simple lucky draw with no additional weightings or considerations (this was different to ballot 1 where preference was given to those who had completed a certain number of Two Oceans events and licensed club runners). This meant that everyone had exactly the same chance of being selected which was as follows:

• Ultra 33% ((2,900-228)/8096)
• Half 12% ((2,350-180)/18006)

The bottom line is that those who beat the odds and were really lucky to get an entry in ballot 2 rather than being unlucky to get the dreaded “We regret to inform you” message.

There are still two possibilities for those who were unsuccessful in the ballot stages.

1. Buy a charity entry.
2. Hope for a substitution.

Charity Entries

There will be approximately 430 ultra and 875 half charity entries available. These entries are sold to pre-selected charities by Two Oceans at the standard entry fee. The charities then decide what premium to add onto the entry with the excess going directly to the relevant charity. You can of course raise more than the allocated entry premium for your chosen charity.

Substitutions

Substitute entries open on 10 January. Based on historical trends, you can expect at least 1,500 substitute entries to become available for each event.

In 2024 there were 1,488 ultra substitutions whereas there were 1,554 in 2023. For the 2024 half there were 2,070 substitutions but, since the 2025 event was oversold by 4,000 entries, the 2024 figure of 1,647 is a better predictor.

Every effort will be made to allow substitutions as late as possible so that no entry goes to waste.

Double Dippers

Runners were allowed to apply and enter both the ultra and half this year. I was interested to see just how many South African running nuts had been selected for both events in 2026.

The number is surprisingly high: 557 (this number surprised everyone and has been triple checked).

This will be revisited ahead of the 2027 event. My personal feeling is that, with both events being so heavily oversubscribed, runners should not be allowed to get an entry for both events in the ballot process. For those that really want to make it a ‘weekend special’, the charity entry and substitution process could still apply.

Why are there so many disappointed runners this year?

There are two factors – far higher demand and not overselling the entries.

In 2022 and 2023 there was no need for a ballot as all events were undersubscribed on the initial entry process. In 2024 (for the 2025 event) just over 13,500 ultra and 22,000 half applications were received. This year there were about 3,500 additional ultra and 6,500 additional half applicants.

The former board made the decision to oversell both events and rely on no shows to avoid a permit violation. Whilst this is a relatively common practice, it is risky and requires a basic understanding of mathematics and probability theory. The decision backfired horribly as the half marathon was oversold by more than 4,000 entries and resulted in a permit violation that has cost the Two Oceans Marathon NPC several million rands in lost sponsorship / fines and threatened the future of the race.

READ MORE: Where did all the runners go? The Comrades cutoff debacle.

[NB: The below paragraph is being misread so to be explicit it deals with the ballot draw conducted in 2024 for the 2025 event when there were far less ballot applications.]

The former board initially allowed 13,000 ultra ballots (so just 500 rejections) and 15,000 half ballots (7,000 rejections) for the 2025 event. The algorithm that was applied for the 2025 event guaranteed all former ultra finishers an entry (i.e. only novices actually went into a lucky draw) and in the half all club members and those who’d run more than five were automatically selected (so only non-club runners with 5 or fewer finishers went into the lucky draw). The 500 ultra discards were in the minority and could consider themselves to be truly unlucky. The 7,000 half rejections were all non-club runners and therefore much less present and vocal expressing their disappointment on social media running groups.

The current board has a commitment with the City of Cape Town to not oversell entries by even one participant. This year the disappointment deficit has been 5,196 runners in the ultra and 15,656 in the half (Note: these numbers exclude the runners that did not pay their ballot 1 entries in time so the equivalent figure to 2025 is an additional +/- 1,500 for both events).

Can the entry numbers be increased?

I provided a detailed explanation in the ballot 1 article under the “Why can’t you increase the permit limits?” heading. The short answer is that there is zero scope to negotiate the permit limits for the 2026 event but, assuming that 2026 is a much-needed return to form for Two Oceans, there is a strong possibility of increased entry numbers (and other changes) in 2027.

As they say in the classics, “Watch this space!”

Any questions and queries on your entry status can be directed to info@twooceansmarathon.org.za or the WhatsApp support line +27823424968.

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