Earlier today, the Comrades Marathon Association (CMA) announced that the qualification time for the 2025 event would revert to 5h00 for a standard marathon. The qualification time was changed from 5h00 to 4h50 for the 2019 event. This article provides statistical analysis on the Comrades finish rates between various qualification times and a brief history of Comrades qualification criteria.
The requirement to run a qualifying marathon was introduced in 1975 (the same year that women and non-white athletes were officially allowed to take part). At that stage Comrades could only accommodate 1,500 entrants, was heavily oversubscribed and the 4h30 qualification was a way to ensure that those entering Comrades had the best chance of being able to finish. There was not (and never has been) a medical reason requiring the running of a qualification marathon.
Did it work? I would say, “Yes”. The 1975 Comrades had a finish rate of 91.5% which was the highest ever up to that point. However, the impact might not have been as dramatic as some would expect – the preceding five Comrades had finish rates of 84.3%, 87.7%, 82.7%, 89.7% and 86.1% respectively*.
* I received a clarification from Arthur Cary that when the 4h30 qualification requirement was introduced in 1975 it was just applied to novices (former Comrades finishers did not need to ‘qualify’). According to Cary there were 235 novice entrants at the 1975.
When the ‘special’ 2000 Comrades with an extra hour to finish was announced, it had a qualification time of 5h00, and 5h00 was used from 2003 onwards (which was when the Vic Clapham medal was introduced and the final finish time was increased to 12 hour permanently).
The 5h00 time was changed to 4h50 in 2018 ahead of the 2019 Comrades. It seems that the change was made fairly arbitrarily during the Rowyn James era which is the same period when in-race cutoffs were continually tinkered with and made stricter and stricter against the advice of experts. I could find no official reasons given for the change to 4h50 in the press articles of the time* but one would assume that it was to increase the finisher rate and/or reduce costs and the CMA keeps the entry fee but incurs fewer race days costs with ‘eliminated’ entrants.
* I have asked on several occasions but no one has ever been able to provide (or appears to have seen) medical based evidence or studies on qualification times and race day medical issues.
What does the data say about the impact of qualifying marathon times on finishers rates?
There have been 27 Comrades with a 4h30 qualifying time, 17 with 5h00 and 3 with 4h50*. Looking at all Comrades with a qualifying requirement, surprisingly 4h30 (with 86.8%) did not produce the highest finisher rate. That honour goes to the 4h50 qualification at 88.9%. The 5h00 years did indeed produce the lowest finisher rate of 82.6%.
* Note: I have not included 2024 analysis in this data. I will do so as time permits.
When I previously discussed these findings with Norrie Williamson, he pointed out that he was not surprised as this follows the marathon ‘predicted’ Comrades finish time. A 4h32 marathon would predict an 11 hour Comrades finish whereas 4h57 would predict a 12 hour finish. This means that 4h30 is -2 minutes on an 11 hour cutoff, 4h50 is -7 minutes on a 12 hour cutoff and 5h00 is +3 minutes.
However, two “bad weather” years in 2012 and 2013 had a major impact on finisher numbers. All three 4h50 years have had “good running weather”. If you remove 2012 and 2013 from the data, the comparison is more equal – 88.9% (4h50) versus 85.8% (5h00).
I’ve done an additional comparison just looking at the last three events for each qualification time. The mass participation events at the end of the 11 hour era produce the worst finish rates of all – 81.9%. The 4h50 time remains the best at 88.9% but the gap is closed to 84.6% for 5h00 qualification.
One final comparison breaks each qualification time into Down and Up runs. What is interesting here is that there is very little difference in success rate for 4h30 events (Up is 0.3% more successful). However, there is a big gap in the 5h00 era with Down being 5.7% more successful. There is also a gap of 4.5% favouring Down runs for 4h50 but here is the sample is very small (2 Down and 1 Up). One takeaway is that the overall 4h50 success is likely to reduce after the 2024 Up run.
Does the move to the 4h50 qualification result in a higher finisher rate? The answer is yes.
Did the data for 5h00 finisher rates warrant a change to the 4h50 time? I would argue no.
Does it make sense that the arbitrary whims of a former race director (and a couple of his cronies) be changed back to their original time? I would argue yes.
I am really pleased that the new CMA Board has grabbed this piece of low hanging fruit. The only criterion for setting qualification times should be to give all paying “customers” a fair crack at earning their Comrades medal. It really should be as simple as that.
Afterword
Will the 5h00 qualification change result in a lower finish rate in 2025? The answer is almost certainly yes. However, the finish rate should be seen as something of a vanity metric – a bit like schools who force out struggling students so that they get a 100% matric pass rate.
For the 2024 event, I predicted that at least 100 runners would benefit from the last minute 10 minute extension to the final in-race cutoff at Polly Shortts. 117 Comrades would have been denied a medal were it not for the extra 10 minutes.
For the 2025 event, I predict that there will be far more than 100 Comrades finishers who would have been denied a start in the past. One of the first stats I’ll pull after the 2025 race is the number of finishers who qualified with a marathon time between 4h50 and 5h00. Watch this space…
You wrote this article a long time ago right, as you had a feeling this might happen right? Lol
Well Done on an insightful article. This was very quick.
Thank you for always looking out for.all runners.
I actually sent a motivation for the change to the previous Board (it was ignored) and did a social media post about it so I was able to cut and paste a lot of content! 🙂
Thank you for the helpful stats Stuart. Only looking at things in such detail over a prolonged period does one get the true picture.
Your attention to detail and meticulous record keeping are sincerely appreciated!
Thank you Stuart. Your stats are interesting and it really help us to understand the impact of both qualifying times. It looks like comrades marathon is now being led by people who have the interests of running community, especially the runners. Thanks again.
Preventing someone from starting is one thing but stopping them at the last cutoff is worse. Hopefully this change provides us with more people racing the final gun…
With Barry Holland being co-opted into the board, me thinks it would be wise to co-opt Stuart onto the board when it comes to decisions around cut-off times etc
I think it will be way more than 100 sub-5 qualifiers who will medal. 2018 I qualified with 4:58 and finished 11:56:08.
Thanks for great analysis and article as always.
A correction: In 1975 the qualifying time was not 4h30. Entries from runners who had previously run the race did not have to qualify. Tha entry was restricted to 1500 runners. Novices had to run a qualifying marathon and the cut off time for the 235 novices who qualified was about 3h30.
This is an insightful analysis of the history of qualifying times and finishers in the ultimate human race. However, as a black person, I really feel disappointed and perturbed that in this age and era, we are still referred to in negative, demeaning terms that reminds us of those days of oppression when public amenities were clearly marked non-whites to deny us access to the same facilities. Couldn’t the author have been more sensitive to issues pertaining to race when talking about a sport that has come to unify all of us as one nation on equal footing where issues of one’s race are not talked about in the same manner as during those dark days of apartheid in our beloved country?
Hi Mathews, nothing demeaning was intended. I’ve re-read the article and the only mention of race within the article is that qualification coincided with opening Comrades to all races and to women. This is factual and contextual to the article.
Another consideration to take into account is the timing of the announcement. Whereas previously the qualifying time was announced at registration, this time it’s later, when many have already qualified with the sub 4:50 time, which according to your stats will result in a higher finisher rate.
Also, with a few major qualifying races just around the corner, many have already trained to ensure a sub 4:50 finish and the extra 10 min is merely a bonus, not a necessity.
Well written and detailed article Stuart. Keep it up.
You have no idea what this extra 10 minutes means to me. Best decision ever. I was more nervous qualifying than finishing the comrades. In 2013 I qualified in 4.57 minutes and finished the comrades in 11.20 with those terrible hot conditions. I would have been one of many that would have missed out on one of the most amazing experiences of my life. I like these new board members!
Thanks for that Stuart. Another good thing about the 5 hour qualifying time is that many runners will be able to focus on their structured training plan without having to worry about doing a sub 4h50 marathon.
We also know one down Comrafes was the longest by more than n 1km or 15 to 20 min for backmarkers. They had less chance of finishing and would have lower finush percentage
Please split the stats between male and female. It would be interesting to see if more women who qualify between 4:50 and 5:00 are able to finish Comrades? Or are the percentage between male and female similar?
Unfortunately I don’t have all the data to do this analysis for all events but I’ll add this to my backlog to look at for the 2025 event.
This one is on you again, congratulations for keeping CMA on their toes and making it a best event for all
We appreciate the 10min bonus a lot
The 5 hour qualifying time is music to the ears of those who just miss the time. 10 minutes is a huge help to those around 5 hour pace. Thanks for a great article.
Stuart we appreciate you 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
Very insightful read indeed. Thanks so much. It will also be interesting to know what impact was the PMB narrow road had in the last 2023 down run. We had to be stopped just after passing UKZN and lost couple of valuable minutes (+_10mins). The finishing stats was made worse by ill-informed cutoffs.
Next step, they need to sort out the chaotic start in Petermaritzburg. Waiting for about 10 minutes before crossing the start line is unacceptable in the 21st century. It means the H group has 11;50 to complete the race. Implementing staggered start, where the 12 hour start when the last batch starts, will transfer the 10 minutes over to the organisers. Otherwise, make starts at different roads and merge later. This will prevent the pushing and people starting in wrong batches, and a few more athletes will get the medal.