Save the Date (An evaluation of Cape Town Marathon’s date change)

Cape Town Marathon announced that the 2026 race date was moving to the end of May and the South African road running internet went mad. Social media is great at polarizing people and this case was no different…

In the left corner you had the Comrades runners, gloves up and spitting mad that the new race date is two weeks before Comrades meaning that they must choose between the two biggest and most prestigious distance races in South Africa in 2026.

In the right corner, you had the ‘a marathon is far enough’ camp, gloves up and spitting mad at runners who think the world revolves around the Comrades Marathon (and also seemingly very upset at ‘entitled’ Comrades runners being very upset).

Which argument packs the biggest punch? Is there a clear winner? Is the Cape Town Marathon (CTM) punching above their weight division? This article takes a look at the statistics, arguments and considerations for and against the date change.

I will tackle this topic by topic, argument by argument and blow by blow to see which punches land and which don’t.

Dealing with the Fallout

I think the CTM team were quite taken aback by the negative reaction on social media to the change. Not even Rowyn James and his infamous ‘joggers’ remark could get over 1,100 comments to a single post on Facebook*. I would estimate that the negative comments were somewhere in the region of 70-80%. On Instagram they positive-negative comments were more evenly weighted which probably due to a younger, less ultra-inclined audience on this platform.

* By point of comparison, Comrades’ ‘two pot’ staggered start announcement only just broke 600 comments.

READ MORE: Staggered Starts (Comrades introduces the Two Pot System)

I ran my own poll a few days later and was surprised at the low voter turnout (but perhaps everyone had calmed down after their long runs over the weekend). A total of 95 votes were cast with 21% saying the change is “Fantastic – best news ever” and just under 80% thought it was “A Disaster – what were they thinking?” One person said that he’s still planning to run both CTM and Comrades in 2026.

A well written article on CTM’s website entitled “Why May 2026? The Thinking Behind the Sanlam Cape Town Marathon Date Change” from CTM’s Head of Communications, Renata Bossi, also went a long way to diffusing the emotions.

Before we get into the CTM’s rationale and reasons for the date change shortly (spoiler alert – they are sound) I think we should give some credit to CTM who have been by far and away the best organised of the big marathons and ultras in South Africa in recent years. Over 82% of 2,625 survey respondents after the 2024 event rated their overall experience a 9 out of 10 or better.

CTM have also been able to adapt to situations like Covid* – remember they were able to put on the first and only large running event in 2021. CTM managed to comply with Covid restrictions and still recorded over 6,000 finishers whilst no other 2021 event had more than 1,000. This is a long winded way of saying that their track record has earned them a level of trust and credibility that has not accrued to most race organisers.

* They were also able to put on a 2020 ‘race’ which was done in-person across three cities for elites and virtually via a smart app for the masses.

I should also disclose that the new race date is personally favourable to me. The October date always falls smack bang on my youngest daughter’s birthday weekend (and she never gives me a pass to go to Cape Town). I’m ten and done with Comrades and miss running marathons after the first weekend of May so the new date is perfect for me. On top of this, the new date is close to my birthday so now my wife doesn’t have to worry about asking me what present I’d like every year!

The Rationale

CTM’s goal has always been to become a WMM. The first ‘relaunched’ CTM was held in 2012 with 1,800 entrants. Since then there’s been a steady increase in numbers and they became the first standard marathon in South Africa to record over 10,000 finishers in 2023. In 2024 they achieved a record 16,351 finishers* and passed the first stage of the Abbotts World Marathon Majors (WMM) evaluation process (a few technicalities including having parked cars along the route prevented them from achieving this in 2023). CTM are hoping to pass round two after the 2025 event and then be awarded full WMM status for the 2026 event.

* To put this in perspective, the second largest standard South African marathon in 2024 was Soweto with 4,691 finishers.

All South Africans should be supporting CTM’s WMM goal. The economic benefit is massive. All the current majors bring in a minimum annual economic impact of $250 million or more. The Boston Marathon analyses the economic impact of their event in excess of $500 million per annum.

Achieving WMM status is a game changer that opens up the demand for the event to the international market. Sydney Marathon, which was announced as the seventh WMM in November 2024, has grown from 3,000 finishers in 2021 to having over 70,000 ballot entry applications for their August 2025 event – and over 47,000 of these are international entries.

CTM has 104 criteria to meet at the 2025 event to secure WMM status and they are confident of achieving them. Clark Gardner, CTM’s CEO told me, “We know that we then become a truly global marathon that will attract not only the 20,000 tourists per year but also the millions that will be watching the screens showing this great city off as is done by London, New York, Boston, Chicago, Tokyo, Berlin and Sydney. The global calendar is a significant factor in our decision.”

At present there are seven WMMs plus two candidate marathons (Cape Town and Shanghai). Six of these already have dates in the second half of the year with most of them congested around CTM’s current October date. There is also competition from other quarters for both travel dollars and elite entrants. Finding a gap in the international calendar was the primary reason for the date change.

Gardner explained, “There are also other popular marathons such as Valencia and the World Championships / Olympics in the second half of the year. The elite list of platinum and gold athletes number approximately 100 and would usually only run two marathons per year. There is much competition to attract these athletes to these races which are required to continue reflecting their prestige through the quality of their field and we have the flexibility in our weather to consider the first half of the global calendar. May would be the last Major Marathon to be run in the first half of the year.”

I initially thought that the WMM overlords had influenced the date change but that is not the case. “They had no say on our decision.” said Gardner. CTM originally requested a date in the middle of May (which would have been 17 May in 2026) but were given the 24 May date by Athletics South Africa (ASA). Gardner continued, “We need some breathing space between our race and the London Marathon.” London is traditionally held on the last Sunday in April.

The Weather Report

Another factor in the change is trying to ensure the optimal running conditions. According to Gardner, “May happens to be Cape Town’s least windy month of the year. The best temperature for elite athletes is to start their race around 10 degrees and finish around 15 degrees. The most dangerous conditions for the masses are when temperatures exceed 27 degrees. October is not a great month for wind and high temperatures.”

Having grown up in Cape Town and being born in May, I can remember celebrating some very wet and windy birthdays. I was therefore quite surprised when ChatGPT generated the grid below showing that May is indeed the least windy month (and fourth wettest month) in the Cape. I did verify the data on weather sites (in the grid the wind speed data comes from Weather Atlas and the temperature and rainfall from Climates to Travel).

May and September are probably the best weather months running condition-wise in Cape Town, although the average temperatures are lower between June and August the chance of heavy rain is much higher. Realistically, you can’t host a WMM in the Cape summer or in the middle of winter which leaves very few options.

There were some other factors which were also considered in the date change. May is well outside of peak tourism periods in the Cape and therefore holds the double benefit that there will be plenty of accommodation for the anticipated 20,000 running tourists and it boosts the local tourism economy in what would otherwise be a relatively stagnant period.

So CTM have come out swinging in round one and their punches have landed. May is ideal from both an international running calendar and weather perspective. It’s now time for a counterattack.

Qualification Conundrum

Cape Town Marathon has been the number one marathon used to qualify for Comrades for several years. For the 2024 race, 2,101 entrants submitted CTM as their qualifier which is more than 1,000 higher than Kaapsehoop Marathon in second place with 1,046. However, quite rightly, CTM has much bigger goals than being “the most popular qualifier” and has no obligation to be a qualifier for either Comrades or Two Oceans. There are plenty of other excellent marathons on the calendar and CTM’s move gives other races and cities the chance to boost their numbers and tourism revenue.

But the Western Cape runners can feel a bit aggrieved. Those in the Republic of Cape Town seldom travel outside of their province (most struggle to even make it past the wine farms when going on holiday). The Western Cape is probably the most marathon deprived province and her races fill up and sell out very quickly (a situation exacerbated by pesky Vaalies and other upcountry folk who come down to the Cape for a marathon running holiday).

This is a problem easily solved if Western Province Athletics add another marathon or two to their running calendar over the second half of the year. I am also happy to provide parochial Cape Townians with plenty of recommendations for great upcountry marathons in the second half of the year.

READ MORE: Complete 2025 South African Road Marathon & Ultra Calendar

So, as we return to our corners, I would suggest that the qualifier conundrum is a non-issue. That CTM is the most popular Comrades qualifier is just a ‘side effect’ of hosting the most popular standard marathon in the country.

The Comrades Overlap

The CTM social media account admin claimed that only a ‘10% minority’ of CTM runners were also Comrades runners. This is based on the figure I published showing 2,101 of Comrades’ 2024 runners used CTM 2023 as their qualifier. However, this number is vastly underrepresented as there would be a large cohort – I would estimate an additional 2,000 to 3,000 runners who ran both CTM and Comrades but used another marathon as their official qualifier.

The new CTM date means that there will be a two-week gap between CTM and Comrades (I have confirmed with Comrades that their provisional date for 2026 is the second Sunday of June). Only the foolhardy would plan to run both. Like it or not, Comrades carries all the kudos in South African running circles and the vast majority of runners who would otherwise have planned to run both events in 2026 will pick Comrades.

Although never the intention, the new date definitely risks alienating the Comrades runner from CTM – and there are not many businesses that would choose to deliberately exclude 10% to 25% of their current customer base.

Gardner was cagey when I asked, “Can you explain what statistical (or other) analysis was done to determine the date change?”, with the response that, “We would prefer not to explain all the analysis done but the reasons have been given to you.” However, I did confirm that no formal data analysis was done to verify the exact overlap between CTM, Comrades and Two Oceans (which is very easily done with cooperation between the events and their respective timing companies).

Another factor to consider is that 2027 will be the 100^th running of Comrades and there are considerations to allow 34,000 entrants (which is symbolic because there were 34 starters at the first Comrades Marathon). Anyone who was on the fence about which race to choose is going to choose Comrades. Furthermore, the provisional date agreed with ASA for Comrades 2027 is the fourth Sunday in May (to be as close as possible to the original Comrades date in 1921). All things being equal, this would be the same weekend as CTM.

Comrades also confirmed that they were as surprised as everyone else about the date change and that they found out about it “on social media.” Whilst there is no obligation for CTM to communicate with Comrades, there are usually etiquettes and protocols to be observed. Having said that, past Comrades Boards have a long history of acting arrogantly and without consideration for the impact of their decisions.

The new CTM race date forces South Africa’s ultra runners to choose between CTM and Comrades. In this segment of the local running community, there really is only one choice and Comrades will win hands down. Although the intent was never to alienate Comrades runners, there is a large risk that this will be the result.

This is a punch that lands squarely on CTM, but just how big an impact it will have will only be seen in the 2026 entry numbers. If CTM are able to get WMM status, CTM is able to get the same demand as Sydney for international ballot applications and CTM are able to grow the South African marathon running community then there is no problem. But that is a lot of ‘ifs’.

Marathon Novices

The CTM Facebook admin quoted a figure that 40% of their field were first time marathon runners and that this is one of the reasons why the Comrades and Two Oceans impacts were irrelevant. I asked Gardner, “Are you able to validate this number and explain how it was derived. Do you know how many of these first-time marathon finishers go on to enter Two Oceans and / or Comrades in the following year?” The response received was, “We prefer not to confirm this number for these purposes and would not know the number that go on to enter ultra marathons.”

It’s easy to throw out numbers but harder to back them up when they come under scrutiny.

If 40% of the CTM field are truly novice marathon runners this is fantastic for the sport of road running. However, regardless of the actual number (the Sydney ballot applications recorded 23% as first time marathoners), I would suspect that a significant number of the novices are using CTM not just as a major milestone (running a marathon is a massive life achievement) but also as a stepping stone to Two Oceans and / or Comrades. One such person was Comrades Vice Chair, Mark Leathers, who ran his first marathon at CTM in 2023 and went on to complete his first Comrades in 2024.There will be hundreds, if not thousands, of others for whom CTM is a gateway drug to get into ultra marathon running.

Demographics & Frequent Flyers

Runners are creatures of habit and, prior to the emergence of CTM, would plan their lives and running year around Comrades and Two Oceans. Permanent numbers for ten finishes are something largely unique to South African running and the aspiration to earn a Green and Blue number at Comrades and Two Oceans respectively keeps many coming back year after year.

Likewise, CTM decided to award a permanent number for ten successful finishes, and this accolade has been added to many runners’ bucket lists.

When CTM was launched in 2012 it was run in September but moved to October in 2020. Although the 2020 event was eventually not held as planned due to Covid, the event has kept the October date until now.

Gauteng has by far the largest number of licensed runners and comprise 42% of the Comrades field (compared to just under 20% local KwaZulu Natal runners). The Two Oceans Ultra has similar demographics with the vast majority of the field coming from outside of the Western Cape. Whilst I don’t have access to the entry stats myself, Gardner said that half of CTM’s 2024 entrants were from the Western Cape and a quarter from Gauteng.

The current race calendar is well-spaced, allowing those who want to run the three biggest distance events in South Africa to do so: Two Oceans in early April, Comrades in the middle of June and CTM in the middle of October. Squeezing all three into a three month period is going to be beyond the budgets of most South Africans. Ultimately, this is going to put pressure on the entry numbers of all three events.

Two Oceans versus Cape Town Marathon

We’ve now got about a six-week difference between Two Oceans and CTM which is more than enough time to recover for recreational Western Cape runners but not for those wanting to race both events.

It is also unlikely that upcountry runners (who comprise the majority of the field in Two Oceans and about half the field at CTM) will want to (or be able to afford) two trips to the Cape in such a short period. This is likely to result in another ‘either or’ decision which is not a great situation for either event.

Two Oceans originally started out as a long training run for Comrades but has subsequently tried (with limited success) to shed this tag and stand outside of Comrades’ shadow. Perhaps an option would be to move Two Ocean to September or October from 2026? The event, which has lost much of its lustre in recent years after a series of organisational blunders, has already moved away from its traditional Easter weekend date and is now seen by many as ‘just another ultra’. Moving Two Oceans to the second half of the year may be the reboot that the event needs to reclaim its past glory.

READ MORE: Two Oceans caught out in their own digimag lie

Foreign Invasion

One of the charges levelled against CTM by disgruntled runners was that they were ‘discarding loyal local runners who got them to this far in favour of international entrants.’ In 2024 over 85% of the field was South African.

Gardner clarified that this is definitely not the intention, “We would aspire to keep the marathon participants as two thirds African / one third international.” He further elaborated, “We have come out strongly that the Cape Town Marathon must remain an African Marathon and not a European or American marathon run on African soil. South Africans will also not have less entries available than they had access to in the past 4 years.”

Gardner committed, “We will not have less than 15,000 South African finishers even if we become a Major. We will not leave our own runners behind and we will continue to keep it affordable for the locals. Our free entry application remains in place and we expect around another 2,000 entries to be granted to this base this year.”

Whilst the 2026 CTM entry capacity is unconfirmed, “We don’t wish to publish this number at this stage”, it certainly is good news that South Africans won’t be losing out – assuming that there is enough local demand to fill the spots.

Entry Demand

Whilst the 21,000 entries (which includes 2,000 free entries to disadvantaged runners) sold out for the 2024 event, the ‘house full’ signs only went up three weeks before the official entry cutoff.

There are 24,000 entries available for the 2025 event.  The 2025 entries opened the day after the 2024 event on 21 October 2024 but are hardly ‘flying off the shelf’. The current entry numbers are sitting just under 4,000, despite a big jump after the date change announcement (presumably driven by Comrades runners who want to make sure that they get one last CTM in).

For me, this further highlights the risk of relying on achieving WMM status in 2025. Life is peachy if WMM status is achieved but, if for some reason this does not happen, then I expect to see CTM’s entry and finisher numbers drop substantially.

I assumed that the entry numbers would be one of the top three items on CTM’s risks and issues list but Gardner corrected me, “Your assumption is incorrect. The entry numbers are not in our Top 3 requirements. Our Top 3 requirements from the list of 104 criteria includes no parked cars on route and attracting an elite field that meets the quality criteria.”

As for whether there is any scope to change the 2026 date or if it’s ‘cast in stone’, Gardner provided a decisive response, “This is the decision – we not playing games and doing a public feasibility study – this is a serious business that takes calculated business decisions that aims to best satisfy our purpose and meet our objective.”

The Final Bell

It appears that CTM have taken an almost entirely externally focused approach to the date change decision which makes sense given their WMM aspirations and the competition for running tourism dollars. However, I think that they’ve grossly underestimated the impact that Comrades runners have on their entry numbers. Excluding Comrades runners from their 2026 race plans is highly likely to hurt their local entry numbers unless they can generate a lot more marathon runners from the local community. If CTM are able to achieve this then everyone, Comrades and Two Oceans included, will ultimately benefit from a much larger and healthier running population.

I do not believe that the international runners will increase much until WMM status is achieved – hopefully this occurs after the 2025 event. Once WMM status is achieved, there should be a massive growth in international numbers and I expect the hype will also increase local interest and entry numbers. Whether international runners will see an ‘African’ major as big of a travel drawcard as Sydney and the existing WMMs remains to be seen. Let’s hope so – the economic and employment benefits are immense. Another risk is whether the global marathon running population will lose interest in the allure of running all the WMMs with more and more events being added.

From the outside, the date change appears to be a high risk move. However, CTM doesn’t believe that entry numbers are one of their top three issues. There is a fine line between confidence and arrogance and the 2026 event will show which side of the line they are on.

My predictions in the short term are that there will be very little impact to Comrades but that Two Oceans ultra entries will suffer as they are now in direct competition. In the long run, in the likely event that Cape Town Marathon achieves World Marathon Major status, I expect we’ll all be complaining over how difficult it is to get a ballot entry. That would indeed be a nice problem to have.

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